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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

But the latest field is profoundly different. The group of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime also-rans rising together. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun year, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a normal year!

Where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still